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Full text of "Rapid Population Growth Consequences And Policy Implications"

secondary school ages after 12 years. Therefore, as shown in Table 13, enrollments take time to diverge substantially according to trends in fertility, although after 15 years the difference has become quite impressive at the primary level: more than a million fewer pupils according to Projection III than in the other projections, even if the aim is merely to hold enrollment ratios constant. According to this conservative goal of holding enrollment rates constant over the 20 years following 1970, primary enrollments need increase by only 28 percent in Projection III, but by 156 percent in the high fertility projection.
When the aim is the more ambitious one of raising enrollment rates as postulated in Table 12, the interaction of population growth with the rise in proportions in school leads to a tremendous expansion in primary enrollments: these more than double during the 1960's, and fail to double again in the 1970's only in the projection in which fertility declines rapidly. It is noteworthy that even with the rapid decline in fertility postulated in Projection III, it is not until after 1985 that the required increase in enrollment
TABLE 13
Pakistan: Index of Growth in School Enrollments, Various Assumptions (1960=100)
Assumption                   1960     1965      1970     1975      1980      1985     1990
PRIMARY SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS Constant enrollment ratios
High fertility                          100       119       134        165       212        273       343
Declining fertility                   100       119        134       165        193        221       242
Rapidly declining fertility       100        119        134        146        161         173       172
Rising enrollment ratios
High fertility                          100        159        223       327       490         719       952
Declining fertility                   100        159        223        328       446         582       674
Rapidly declining fertility       100       159       223       290       373        457       479
SECONDARY SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS Constant enrollment ratios
High fertility                          100       138       173       197       235         297       380
Declining fertility                   100        138        173        197        237         280       319
Rapidly declining fertility       100        138        172        199        218         237       256
Rising enrollment ratios
High fertility                          100       235        404       583        845      1,270    1,886
Declining fertility                   100        235        404       582        850      1,197    1,582
Rapidly declining fertility       100        235        404       587        784      1,012    1,272
Source: (38, Tables 5 and 9).velopment is currently being undertaken by the International Institute for Educational Planning, and results should be available at the end of 1970.s